Oscars 2026 Predictions

The globe is already set to look towards the 98th Academy Awards, and the form of the competition is already on the cards and ensuring a fierce fight. The year 2025 has been filled with big releases, and since the grand festivals are over, everything is falling in place as to what movies and performers will be on the list for the topmost awards. As ever, it's not only the movies themselves but also the way they are promoted, from the casting to the commercials. And with months still to go until the nominations, bets are already being placed.

Bets Already on the Increase

One of the contenders from the front-runners, "Sinners" by Ryan Coogler, is one of the most contentious ventures. This socially inflected gangster drama won its praise at the Gotham Awards and is already showing up in projections as a contender for Best Picture. Another is Chloé Zhao's "Hamnet," a Shakespearean retelling of his same-titled novel that swept the critics at NYFF. Its heartbreaking beauty, poetry of images, and forceful performances put it in contention.

Rising above the rest of these titans is "Bugonia" by Yorgos Lanthimos, a black comedy that, in the aftermath of its festival success, should be able to match the success of "Poor Things." In the meantime, "One Battle After Another" by Paul Thomas Anderson, in spite of negligible press interest, is gaining strength due to a talented cast and unorthodox genre strategy.

In a competitive market such as this, monitoring campaign trends is particularly vital. The FIRST platform is already offering analytical analysis that is able to interpret precisely how the studios are building their publicity campaigns. The platform is not just handing out news but also provides detailed tools for odds analysis, from the betting coefficients to the festival reaction analysis.

Stars Who May Shift the Race

This year will witness especially competitive acting categories. Paul Mescal in "Hamnet" is one who has a very good chance of claiming the Best Actor award, having been nominated previously. Daniel Kaluuya in "Sinners" is another very strong contender, whose work has already been receiving appreciative reviews from critics. For Best Actress, Jessie Buckley and Florence Pugh are the ones to beat, both with authoritative dramatic roles.

And although "Bugonia" may not be a glaring choice, already a Critics' Choice nominee is lead actor Barry Keoghan, so he's certainly in the running. But as our history teaches us, surprises do hit more often than you can imagine — particularly with the way last year's Grammy caught everyone off guard. The 2025 Grammy Nominations are a clear testament to how the business can surprise us.

Key technical contributors in 2026:

Film title: Sinners, Hamnet, Bugonia, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme

Original score: Ludwig Göransson, Hildur Guðnadóttir, Jerskin Fendrix, Jonny Greenwood, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross

Cinematography: Autumn Durald, Joshua James Richards, Robbie Ryan, Greig Fraser, Steve Yedlin

Editing: Tom Cross, Joe Walker, Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Dylan Tichenor, Kirk Baxter

Production design: Hannah Beachler, Patrice Vermette, Shona Heath, Adam Stockhausen, Fiona Crombie

By the way, speaking of campaigns and categories, recall how last season witnessed shuffling between supporting and lead — for example, Chase Infiniti is being promoted as a lead actor these days, thus upsetting the balance in both categories.

Campaigns, Streaming, and New Rules

Streaming originals are serious Oscar players now. Amazon, Netflix, and Apple TV+ are aggressively marketing their films, and it is no longer a replacement for studio product. Consider the case of A24's "Marty Supreme," which premiered in a few theaters, but it had solid online backing that secured it on shortlists.

The introduction of the Best Casting category in 2026 is also revolutionizing things. The casting director is now on the same platform as the editor and composer, and this has a ripple effect when considering a film as a whole. This is particularly true with "Hamnet," where casting played a crucial role in its success.

And while the Best Stunt award won't be given until 2028, already it's evident that action movies such as "One Battle After Another" are planning their campaigns with changes in the years to come. There is no doubt that the industry is learning to accommodate new realities, and this is being seen in promotional tactics.

Final Thoughts

The 2026 Oscars are not so much an awards show but a look at how the movie industry itself is changing. And while favorites have been declared already, there can still be plenty of surprises — particularly once nominations are formally made public in January. So tracking the campaign is not so much keeping up, but keeping up with how contemporary cinema works.